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The new NFL season means a new wave of bets being placed. The summer season always creates a sort of downtime for sports betting in the interim between the NHL and NBA seasons ending and the NFL and various college seasons picking up. With nothing there to carry water but baseball over the dog days of summer, traffic to betting apps dies down and then resumes anew on a cyclical basis each season as the NFL season draws closer.
The sports gambling market has seen plenty of buzz over the past few years as it takes off in the United States, whether it’s coverage of the legalization battle as states like Massachusetts and Kentucky becomes the next dominos to fall, or the potential for massive winnings when people place hail mary bets at long odds and see them come to fruition.
While everyone in the betting world wishes on some level that they had a crystal ball, capable of picking the upsets before they occur (like in 2015, when Leicester City of the English Premier League made headlines around the world for winning the league title despite 5000-to-1 odds of doing so before the season began, or when the 1999 Rams went from 150-to-1 basement dwellers to Super Bowl champions with the rise of The Greatest Show on Turf), those crazy occurrences represent the exception, not the rule.
Sure, you can make millions off a comparably tiny bet, but the chances of doing so are astronomically low: that’s why bookies set the lines the way they do.
The most successful sports wagerers use strategies like bet-hedging to ensure they turn a profit, betting against their initial wager midway through a game or season and using those updated odds in order to guarantee they’ll win either outcome.
Rather than going for the long shots, consistent winning on betting lines with an average chance of winning is a much better strategy for long-term success, as long as you know how to do it properly.
With that in mind, here’s a look at some of the best odds on the table this upcoming NFL season, and what it takes to make adequate use of them.
As the NFL 2023 season approaches, all eyes are on Patrick Mahomes, the dynamic quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs. Known for his incredible arm strength and playmaking abilities, Mahomes is a force to be reckoned with on the field. With the BetMGM Promo Codes, fans can now capitalize on his promising odds for the upcoming season. After winning Super Bowl LVII earlier this year, his second career championship title, Mahomes and the Chiefs have the best odds of running it back this season, listed at +600 at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Funnily enough, Mahomes has just the second-best odds of winning his third career league MVP award. He’s listed at +650 by BetMGM, a hair behind apparent front runner Joe Burrow, signal caller for the Cincinnati Bengals.
Mahomes has done just about everything one can do to win in his first five seasons as a starter in the NFL, and I’ve long since learned not to bet against him. If the sportsbooks are giving him subpar odds, it’s an opportunity to leap at.
Betting on awards that take place over the course of a season provides an excellent opportunity to guarantee you win something. With Mahomes at +650 right now, a 50-dollar bet would bring in $325 in winnings if it’s successful.
Let’s say Mahomes is out of the race by the end of the season, whether because of an injury, poor play on his part, or excellent play by a competitor. If Burrow remains the front runner (or another dark horse candidate vaults their way into the mix), say with better than even chances of winning at -150, a $100 bet on him all but ensures you’ll come up a winner either way. If Mahomes wins, you take home $275, the $375 payout minus the $100 lost on Burrow. If Burrow wins, you still come out slightly ahead, bringing home $116 and some change: the $166 payout minus the $50 lost on Mahomes.
Barring a historic award race, there’s always a pretty good chance of determining who’s going to win season awards by the time the year wraps up, making bet hedging less risky than it is with live odds during a game: you have a whole season’s worth of evidence to use, rather than a gut feeling at halftime.
Other favorites include Micah Parsons of the Dallas Cowboys (+650 to win the AP Defensive Player of the Year award), the Atlanta Falcons’ Bijan Robinson (+250 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year), and Will Anderson (+350 to take home Defensive Rookie of the Year with the Houston Texans). Placing a sensible bet now and monitoring the awards races through the end of the season give you an excellent chance of lining your pockets by the time the season comes to a close.
Another postseason award that’s a veritable layup is the comeback Player of the Year award. Bettors and bookies alike have kept their eyes on the odds for this one since early 2023, when Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin suffered a cardiac incident after making a tackle, needing medical trainers to restart his heart on the field.
Now that Hamlin has been cleared to continue his football career and is back on the gridiron for the Bills, he’s almost certain to win the award, even if he only plays a single snap. Look at Alex Smith of the then Washington Football Team, who suffered a brutal leg injury that nearly forced doctors to amputate. Smith never expected to play again; taking nearly two years and a flurry of surgeries to rehab his mangled leg.
While he didn’t play that well in his return to the field, throwing six touchdowns to eight interceptions in eight games, Smith still won the award in a landslide. Expect a similar trajectory for Hamlin. BetMGM has him at -300 to win Comeback Player of the Year, and even those odds feel too long. He’s a layup, and you’re almost guaranteed to win a bet placed on him.