Predicting the 2024 Super Bowl Favorites

The 2023 NFL season has been as unpredictable as any season in recent memory. No team has pulled away as the clear best team in the league, setting the stage for an exciting postseason. While there have been some shakeups, many of the preseason favorites remain. Let’s look at the five Vegas favorites to win Super Bowl LVIII.

San Francisco 49ers | +225

The 49ers entered the season with the third-best Super Bowl odds in the sport but could have been higher. There were a lot of question marks surrounding the team, particularly the quarterback position. Brock Purdy’s recovery from a torn ligament in his elbow and doubts that he was a legitimate NFL starter kept them from the top spot.

However, despite a three-game losing streak earlier in the season, San Francisco has emerged as the clear NFL betting line favorite to win the Super Bowl. After starting 5–0, injuries to key players like Deebo Samuel contributed to three straight losses. However, when healthy, the Niners have been unstoppable, blowing out significant contenders like the Dallas Cowboys (42–10), Jacksonville Jaguars (34–3), and Philadelphia Eagles (42–19). When things are going right for Kyle Shanahan’s squad, they are the best team in the NFL.

Baltimore Ravens Stadium

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Baltimore Ravens | +600

The Ravens entered this offseason with even more question marks than the 49ers due to a weaker roster and a quarterback looking for a contract. The Ravens failed to sign former MVP Lamar Jackson to a long-term deal before the 2022 season and again in 2023, resulting in Baltimore placing the non-exclusive franchise tag on their quarterback. After Jackson publicly expressed his displeasure with being tagged and formally asked for a trade, the stalemate ended with a five-year, $260 million contract in late April.

With Jackson, the Ravens have been a consistent contender but took another step this season with the former Louisville Cardinal playing his best football since his MVP 2019 season. The defense has also taken a significant step forward, ranking 2nd in yards against and points per game. They ranked 10th and 3rd last season, respectively. With the Chiefs struggling and Joe Burrow out for the season with a wrist injury, the Ravens have emerged as the favorites in the AFC.

Dallas Cowboys | +625

In early October, things looked bleak for the Cowboys, who had entered the season with sky-high expectations. After back-to-back 12-win seasons that didn’t yield even a conference championship game appearance, Dallas began the season 2–0 before falling to the hapless Arizona Cardinals and then getting blown out 42–10 on Sunday Night Football.

They have lost just one game since, a nailbiter to the Eagles on the road, and have outscored opponents by more than two touchdowns per game since the 49ers’ loss. The Cowboys are arguably the hottest team in football, and quarterback Dak Prescott has a legitimate case to be the league’s MVP. The #1 seed may be just out of reach, but a division title will likely return to Dallas, meaning they will have to play a maximum of one road game in the postseason before the Super Bowl.

Philadelphia Eagles | +750

The defending NFC champs came into the season as the conference favorites to reach the Super Bowl again. They started the season 10–1 and have spent most of the year as the #1 seed in the NFC. However, they got to that 10–1 record by winning an unsustainable amount of close games.

Through week 14, the Eagles are tied with the Ravens, 49ers, and Cowboys for the best record in the league. However, their +21 point differential ranked 11th in the league, behind teams like the 7–6 Vikings and the 6–7 Saints because of a struggling defense. Only five teams have scored more points than the Eagles this season, but just four teams have given up more points than Philadelphia’s defense. They are still a legitimate contender, thanks to Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown, but they have much to fix before the playoffs begin. 

Kansas City Chiefs: Run it Back flag

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Kansas City Chiefs | +800

The Kansas City Chiefs are a perennial Super Bowl favorite. Since Patrick Mahomes came into the league in 2018, the Chiefs have won the AFC West every season and have never played a road playoff game. As the defending Super Bowl Champions, they have hosted the AFC Championship game every season of Mahomes’ career, the first time any team has hosted at least six years in a row.

However, this season is different. After winning the Super Bowl in their first season without Tyreek Hill, the offense has sputtered in year #2. Kansas City has yet to score at least 20 points six times in their first 13 games. In Mahomes’ first 80 starts before this season, he failed to score at least 20 points six times. The Chiefs wide receiving core is arguably the worst in football and has dropped passes at a historic clip. However, the defense is better than that of the Mahomes era, and even with the Chiefs not at their best, no team will want to face Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs.

Who Else Is Left?

While Vegas likes the five teams listed above, there are other teams to consider. The Dolphins and Lions are division leaders that could be a threat, while the 7–6 Bills have the 5th-best point differential in football and could make noise if they sneak in. Aside from the 49ers, the rest of the league seems wide open as the playoffs approach.

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